Welcome to another discussion on the Magic of Managing Uncertainty (have I read too much Harry Potter?). We have discussed the challenge of making results and scope certain. It is in performance – the nitty gritty of doing the work to produce that result -- where we truly make risk and scope certain. Creating Certainty in Performance is the most complex and most difficult of all that we do. Actually once we make on task, step, operation, or resource certain, we move on because the project jungle is full of alligators of uncertainty. Rarely do we look back because we are proficient at making things certain – we do watch the meters and gauges that show progress, effort, duration, cost for indications of deviation from our plan. But we ignore normal variation.

We have to remember that there is natural variation within the methods, operations, and resources that we have made certain. We carry a small contingency to address this expected and normal variation (actually the contingency for this natural variation is quite small around 5%). Risk management is about the uncertain, the unexpected (but here we carry a big contingency and make the unexpected expected), the unusual but possible. Remember Contingency is just one form of response there are quite a few responses for risk especially when you know the cause.

Remember discussing the work plan for each deliverable in scope? There must be a work plan for each of our 500 activities comprising the WBS or scope definition. Only with a work plan are we able to make things certain. I have heard some project managers say doing the work is the responsibility of the team member or subcontractor and how they do it is not anything the Project Manager should be concerned about as long as the work is completed on time. This moves Risk onto the team member or contractor and leaves the Project Manager with no idea as to the Opportunities available to accelerate or Threats present which can derail the best project.

Each work item of the WBS or activity of the schedule should have a work plan with cost estimate, labor plan, method, resources and network diagram. This is a work package. The Performance Risk – the Risk of Accomplishing the work -- in that work package should be searched.

These questions should be asked during the search for Uncertainty in Performance:

1. How is Performance to be measured? Will this measure impact Uncertainty in performing work? Will the measurement be sufficiently responsive to react to change? This reporting should occur at the minimum daily.
2. Are we capable of measuring progress, duration, labor hours? How do we take credit for earned hours? Are earned value hours consistent with the labor plan? Just how is productivity calculated?
3. Are the methods for each activity or work item defined? Is this the best proven method possible? Best Practices are Performance Enhancers.
4. Can we perform each method? How do we know?
5. Does our team or contractors have the technical skills required to accomplish the method? How do we know?
6. Will we get team synergism or will they work in parallel with little interaction? What is the opportunity in Team Work?
7. Resources – what is the Uncertainty or Risk in each resource for each work item or activity using these four dimensions? What assumptions have you made about each of these four dimensions for each Resource?
   • Quantity – too few or too many will impact productivity and product quality. Timeliness is crucial.
   • Quality – poor resources impact product quality and productivity. 
   • Value – cost or price variation can result in fewer resources, poorer quality, and sometimes lower productivity.
   • Productivity – poorly supervised, poorly planned work can reduce productivity of resources. Waste reduces productivity of materials, tools, and equipment.
     • Supervision – supervision is a Performance multiplier.
     • People
     • Tools  
     • Equipment
     • Materials
     • Information – availability can stop all progress; poor quality and slow progress.
     • Money
     • Time – perception of available time impacts productivity
8. What is the plan to start the project? The time with greatest Risk is start-up.
9. What velocity of progress is required? How will the project be accelerated to this velocity?
10. How will the project be finished? What is the closure plan?

The search for Uncertainty in Performance will occur during detailed planning of the 500 activities. Each activity has a unique set of resources integrated by the work method. The method itself must be evaluated for the quantity of work and how progress will be measured. Resources make or break the method. Resources can be evaluated globally across the project and at a micro level for each Activity. What is the Risk in each resource in each work activity? As a team or project manager experiences projects, the confidence of certainty will increase. Changes in teams, in type of project, in type of resource, in resource vender, in resource logistics inject uncertainty once again.

Performance Risk or Uncertainty is tough – this is the execution of the project. Much variation is reduced and made certain during the planning, estimating, and scheduling before starting the project. (Skilled P.M.’s can start projects and plan at the same time but this takes skill and thick skulls.) Uncertainty lurks in each resource, in each method, and each control or metric. Once the project kicks off, progress is constantly compared to plan (effort, duration, cost, velocity, quality). That progress is verified by walking the project and used to forecast future progress and plan (effort, duration, cost, velocity, quality). This vigilance is almost a sixth sense. For this reason, Project Masters are almost ever present on their projects.

Next time, we will discuss the risk management process, risk cause, and risk response next time.