Upon peeling back the cover on this unique text, one soon feels as if he is taking his PMP exam all over again. Working through the pop quiz provided at the start of the book, one is quickly provided with two bits of information - even an experienced project practitioner may not know much about decision analysis, and using math in decision making is a foreign concept. (Fortunately, the quiz is followed by an answer key and a math-light primer on this very subject.)
How are rational choices made in project management and how can we improve our ability to make them? What tools can help us? How can we diminish as much as possible the influences of human bias, heuristics, and emotion - especially our own? The purpose of this book lies in the authors' belief that project management is fertile soil for the application of decision analysis and that project managers need to be students of, not necessarily experts in, the psychology of decision-making. The project manager should not be the ultimate decision maker on the project team, but they can be a valuable consultant on the approaches and pitfalls of this pivotal process. "Instead of making an irreversible major decision at the start of a project, it is important to focus on making small sequential choices." The project manager can lead the organization in continuously learning from decisions already made, and recording and applying these lessons learned, even as they are realized.
We are told that every organization has a "decision policy - a set of principles and preferences" by which decisions are made. Creativity in project management "is manifested in finding alternatives that are new, feasible and useful, through the careful and intentional use of filtering alternatives to get to a solution." The authors point out several times the difficulty many companies have in revisiting decisions which have already been made, thus sacrificing a creative alternative. The environment of project decision making is a microcosm of the project environment, with each person at the table playing a distinct role, toting a potentially different agenda and imposing a variety of objectives or expectations onto the project.
Reading a list of biases provided in one of the appendices - a unique addition to this text - it is quickly evident how these are played out in project leadership. "Most people believe themselves to be objective observers." Our authors prove otherwise as they demonstrate that as project team members we frequently operate fueled on a cocktail of bias and heuristics (rules of thumb), leaving us far from objective. Information that is vivid and immediate (availability bias), is latched onto, driving our decisions or perceptions. The burden of poor decision making is all too real.
Real-world diagnosis, interesting tools (such as sensitivity analysis or event chain methodology) and pertinent warnings are set side by side for the reader's consideration. The symptoms of what the authors call FDS (Frustrated Developers Syndrome) are expounded upon and referenced throughout as a sign of an ill environment in which to manage a project, one in which decision making is an elite sport or proven moot by an inflexible culture. Project managers are told to beware of the "illusion of control" bias. We are reminded that as project managers, we often believe we are in control when we are not. This material is not provided to give us that much sought after control, but rather to offer us the option of an objective knowledge of what is going on in and around our projects. The project manager's goal is stated - to model the project in ways that will provide the needed input to project decisions, whether in the planning stage or deep in project execution.
What the authors have provided is more than a simple text book. The volume proves to be a survey of decision analysis techniques and discussion of situations and/or examples in which these techniques might be employed. Frequently, the reader is provided with step-by-step instructions on how to use a given tool and how the tools should be used in conjunction with PMBOK processes such as risk analysis. Strong opening paragraphs at the top of each chapter, summary points at the end of each chapter, and a website (www.projectdecisions.org), round out a highly functional format for an introduction to a vast and practical topic. This book promises to be frequently referenced by project managers and strategic decision makers alike.
Reprinted from the reviewer. Reviewed by David J. Marsh, PMP, Sr. Project Manager, Covance Central Laboratory Services, Indianapolis, IN, USA.